Mets mailbag, Part 2: Stopping steals and finding fits in the rotation (2024)

Through 36 games, it’s hard to predict which direction the New York Mets (18-18) will go in the standings. Would it be surprising if they finished a few games below .500? Probably not. Would it be surprising if they finished a few games above .500? Probably not. To accomplish the latter, though, the Mets may have to fix a glaring problem and also find the best way to optimize their rotation once their group is at full strength.

In the second part of our mailbag, we analyze why the Mets have had so much trouble stopping other teams from stealing bases and discuss how their rotation should look.

Why can’t the Mets do a freaking thing to STOP ALL THE STOLEN BASES??? —The Entire Fan Base

Tim Britton: Coming off a series sweep in which the Mets allowed 10 steals over the weekend, a lot of readers justifiably wondered how New York could curtail the carousel on the basepaths.

Through Wednesday, the Mets had allowed 52 stolen bases in 55 attempts. That was 14 more steals than any other team had allowed and tied for the fewest caught stealings despite the volume. It’s hard to achieve that combination.

Let’s look at possible explanations.

Are the Mets just putting themselves in more stolen-base opportunities?

New York leads the majors in walk rate. Could that mean there are just more chances for opposing base stealers?

Nope. Just six teams have thrown fewer pitches this season than the Mets in traditional base-stealing chances (a runner on first without a runner on second).

Are the Mets just playing teams that like to steal a lot, such as the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers?

To figure this out, I looked at what each team the Mets had played so far did on the bases against the Mets contrasted with what they did against everyone else on their schedule. For instance, the Reds have 62 steals this season in 36 games, though seven came in three games against the Mets. Their “expected steals” against New York would be (62-7)/(36-3), or 1.67 steals and 0.33 caught stealings per game. In three games, instead of going 7-for-7, you’d expect them to go 5-for-6.

By this measure, the average team facing the Mets’ schedule would have allowed 25 bases (with seven CS) through the first 36 games. The Mets have allowed twice as many steals with half the outs.

The Cubs went 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts against the Mets in their four-game series. Chicago is 12-for-20 in 34 games against everyone else.

It’s not just the schedule.

How much of this is a result of missing Francisco Alvarez?

The math suggests a lot.

I took the same chart of actual steals against the Mets versus expected steals and broke it down by catcher. And it gets interesting here:

Alvarez did allow teams to go 10-for-10 in his 13 starts, which didn’t seem all that great. However, he was the one going against Milwaukee and Cincinnati’s burners more often, and his performance was much more in line with what other teams have permitted against those opponents. Omar Narváez, in particular, has been run on by teams at a much higher volume than those teams do the rest of the time.

There is a confounding factor here, though: Once word gets out, other teams get more aggressive. It’s possible and maybe even probable that the number of attempts would have gone up against the Mets even if Alvarez were still healthy, just because the club had not shown the ability to slow the running game in the early part of the season. It seems this could be why the stolen-base numbers are up against Tomás Nido as well.

So what’s the solution?

There isn’t any one. The Mets have to get better at a bunch of smaller things that will help but not eliminate this marginal disadvantage. While the eventual return of Alvarez’s strong arm should help, New York’s pitchers have to give their catchers a chance. That means fewer walks to put runners on, occasionally being quicker to the plate, altering the time between pitches with short or long holds, and yes, throwing over a third time and risking a balk in the process. I thought this story by Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans laid out the various methods (and their possible shortcomings) well. The Diamondbacks are an interesting counterexample.

The Mets should soon have an abundance of mostly back-end starting pitching with the return of front-end Kodai Senga, plus Tylor Megill and David Peterson in various stages of rehab. How do you see a July five-man rotation shaping up, and which of the current and soon-to-be available starters might help bolster the pen in a swingman and/or later inning role? Is there any trade value in the excess? — James O.

Will Sammon: With Senga, the Mets would at times still look to utilize a six-man rotation or at least some version of it (they may not follow the order strictly, given the days off on the schedule). So, speculatively, once everyone is healthy, a rotation could look like: Senga, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Christian Scott and Jose Buttó.

But there are a lot of “ifs” attached to that list, plus a couple more questions surrounding Megill and Peterson. If Buttó pitches well before Megill returns, it’d be hard to remove him. If walks continue to be an issue for Manaea (he walked only one in his last start) would he follow Adrian Houser to the bullpen at some point? Manaea is on a two-year guarantee so there’s incentive for the Mets to maximize his value. How effective will Megill and Peterson be?

From a pure “stuff” perspective, Houser rates as the worst of the group on the bubble, multiple evaluators said, and he also has some experience as a reliever and in a hybrid role.

Megill is scheduled for another rehab outing this weekend while Peterson (also making rehab starts) and Senga (not yet making rehab starts) are eligible to come off the injured list on May 27. That’s still more than three weeks away, and Senga may need more time than that, too. A lot will happen. A lot can change. But, yes, the Mets may have a surplus that they can trade from. In the short term, it’s worth keeping in mind that Megill, Peterson and Buttó can all be optioned to the minors. It’s plausible that any of the three or a combination could appear out of the bullpen, but it’s harder to build someone back up as a starter than it is to lessen their load.

TB: And appearing out of the bullpen doesn’t have to be in a traditional relief role. I’m speculating here, but what Manaea did as kind of a piggyback reliever for San Francisco last season could be a blueprint for keeping the pen fresh while making use of that surplus of starters.

Is Reed Garrett’s start sustainable? — Holden W.

WS: Garrett doesn’t have a track record of success, but his stuff has evolved; it’s a different arsenal and plan of attack compared to previous seasons when he struggled to stay on rosters.

Reed Garrett's 2Ks in the 8th. pic.twitter.com/hdARoGAZ0C

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2024

There are some concerns. Batters will make adjustments. And Garrett’s walk rate (12 percent) may catch up to him. Will he finish the year with an ERA below 1.00? That seems unlikely.

But Garrett’s stuff is real, and he should continue to have success. He’s limiting hard contact while piling up whiffs. A big key is his split-finger, which he can throw in the strike zone. With multiple quality pitches, Garrett owns a starter’s repertoire. It appears the Mets have found and developed a useful pitcher; it’s more of a question of which kind of job best suits him and helps the team. So far, Garrett doing a little bit of whatever is needed out of the bullpen is working just fine.

TB: The innings rate will have to come down for Garrett. Right now he’s on pace to throw more than 80 out of the pen, and he hasn’t thrown more than 60 in a season since 2018.

Given that a couple different front offices have declined to give Mark Vientos a significant run in the majors, is it safe to say there’s something(s) about him that evaluations don’t like? — Matt A.

WS: He just doesn’t fit on the Mets roster with J.D. Martinez taking most of the playing time at designated hitter, Pete Alonso entrenched at first base and Brett Baty getting the shot to stick at third base. Defense remains a question for Vientos. So does consistency at the plate against right-handed pitching. At 24, though, the time to give him a chance at the major-league level, whether it’s in New York or elsewhere, is overdue. There are no paths for the kind of playing time that’s necessary for someone his age — you’re not going to have him languish on the bench — at the moment with the Mets.

(Photo of Lars Nootbaar stealing second base ahead of Jeff McNeil’s tag: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)